For example, they . (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. Informal / Shadow Economy Size | By Country | 2023 | Data - World Economics ET). A fully updated Money Supply Special Report will follow. U.S. Dollar. One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. As Tim notes, this is a gobsmacking error. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). Unlike the Money Supply at present, even before the onset of Tapering and Balance Sheet Reduction, the Monetary Base was and is not close to record annual growth levels, previously seen during the 2007-2008 Banking System Collapse of the Great Recession, which at the time exploded Reserve Balances (up 5,000 percent year-to-year, but never reversed much in parallel in a post-Crisis movement). Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation Current employment/ economic conditions will be assessed and reviewed shortly in the pending No. (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. If you are a Subscriber and are not receiving, but would like to receive those e-mails, please send a note to johnwilliams@shadowstats.com along with the desired e-mail address. Commentary No. Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing December 2020 Cass Freight Index Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). 1461. The aggregate Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit for 2022 was unrevised at -1,320.2 Billion Chained (2012) Dollars, again, its worst showing in history. With a further quarter-point rate hike expected out of this weeks May 2nd to 3rd FOMC Meeting, following nine consecutive FOMC Meeting rate hikes (0.25% at the last three meetings, 0.50% and 0.75% earlier), the U.S. Central Bank appears intent on using surging interest rates to drive the U.S. economy into the ground. The latest Economic and Inflation releases were covered earlier in the Opening Section of this DAILY UPDATE. 1459. Commentaries by Date - Shadowstats.com Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic /unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. Unprecedented in 40-Plus Years of Weekly Monetary Reporting: Money Supply M1 Jumped by 14.1% in the Last Two Weeks, in a Post-Election / COVID-19 Flight to Cash, From M2 to M1 Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats' John Williams, and will still grow. Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy "John" Williams was born in 1949. Unemployment. 1461. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). Tourism Statistics - Austrade First-Quarter 2021 GDP Increasingly Is Set for a Relapsing Quarterly Contraction Reserves jumped by a dominant 7.1% in the month, which would speak to new money creation, while the Currency in Circulation component gained by 0.6% month-to-month, to a new historic high. Nov 26, 2013 Housing Starts delayed again. The 2020 Pandemic-Driven Recession was timed by the defining National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), from Peak-to-Trough, as from February 2020 to April 2020 [2 months, the shortest on record] and from Fourth-Quarter 2019 to Second-Quarter 2020 [2 quarters]. Consumer Inflation: Official vs ShadowStats | Chart of the Week. Shadowstats debunked | Econbrowser Shadow previously offered three subscription plans: Shadow Boost ($14.99 per month, or $11.99 per month with an annual subscription) with a basic gaming PC setup, Shadow Ultra ($29.99 per. 1461. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. Where monthly jobs growth in the key Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Construction Sectors has turned flat-to-minus, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector showed continued strong, albeit slowing monthly growth, still holding shy by more than 2% (-2%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level of activity. (2) April 27th (Bureau of Economic Analysis), also see Note 17. Part II --REGULAR ALERTS - Weekly Review: ECONOMY, MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION ALERTS: Broad Economy continues in downturn, amidst spiking Inflation. Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006 Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices (13) April 12th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Further definition is provided in our CPI Glossary. He received an A.B. [See the earlier headline Payroll discussions and later FOMC comments.] The NBER called an end to the 2020 Recession on July 19th, again, just the first leg of the Depression. Such Was the First Annual Gain in Freight Activity Since November 2018, When Excessive Fed Tightening Was Being Used to Constrain Consumer Liquidity and Domestic Economic Growth While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. Australia CPI: Economists predict rate increases from mid-2022 after FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse Consider -- Despite significant Recovery off the Pandemic-Driven Economic Trough of April 2020, the February 2023 Payroll Employment has recovered its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic/ Recession Peak, despite indications of a renewed slowdown. Continuing Massive Expansions of Federal Government Deficit Spending and Federal Reserve Monetary Stimulus Promise Massive Inflation 1461. Accordingly, comparative year-to-year change in the various March 2021 to March 2022 Money Supply measures against the heavily spiked year-ago activity tended to be depressed, against what otherwise would be the change versus the February 2020 Pre-Recession or Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), effectively the Base Circumstance, before the Pandemic emergency liquidity surge. Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. From a revised -101.7 (previously -101.7) billion, from a revised -98.2 billion in December, its worst monthly showing since -112.4 billion in October 2022. ET]. An old friendthe late-Doug Gillespieasked me some years back to write a series of articles on the quality of government statistics. 1461] -- The 2020 Economic Collapse Remains Far from full Recovery. On Top of an Upside Revision, Housing Starts Gained 4.9% in the Month; This Was Not Statistically Significant at the 90% Confidence Interval -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. Shy of a near-term happy resolution to the Russia-Ukraine War, the circumstance only has exacerbated the ShadowStats Hyperinflation pre-Russia-Ukraine War outlook of the last year or so, where: Despite recent relative weakness in gold prices and related Central Bank or other market machinations, the ShadowStats broad outlook in the weeks and months ahead has remained for: (1) A continuing and renewed deepening (potentially hyperinflationary) U.S. economic collapse, reflected in (2) Continued flight to safety in precious metals, with accelerating upside pressures on gold and silver prices, (3) Mounting renewed selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, against the Swiss Franc and other traditionally stronger currencies, and (4) Despite recent extreme Stock Market volatility and current near-record high levels in the popular U.S. stock-market indices, high risk of major instabilities and heavy stock-market selling continues, complicated by ongoing direct, supportive market interventions arranged by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, as head of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. -- Severe Systemic structural damage and distortions from the Pandemic-driven Shutdown continues to forestall meaningful Economic Rebound into 2023 and beyond, despite a reopened economy, in context of flummoxed Fiscal and Monetary Policies, and ever-evolving COVID-19 and related circumstances, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict. shadowstats.com : r/badeconomics - Reddit 1461. Best Wishes -- John Williams. The linear transformation of CPI tracks the $89 shadowstats series almost perfectly. In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking), Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. While the now-broadest aggregate Money Supply M2 declined year-to-year by 4.1% (-4.1%) in March 2023, the highly liquid and inflation driving Basic M1 was up by 4.8% year-to-year. 1451, No. Primers & Reports. ShadowStats postings of the June 2021 Commentary and before - back to 2004 - are open to all, accessible by clicking on Archives, at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage. Holding Physical Gold Protects the Purchasing Power of Dollar Assets, Irrespective of Any Near-Term Volatility in, or Manipulation of, Gold Prices, October 2020 Cass Freight Index Turned Positive Year-to-Year, Gaining 2.4% Against an Unusually Sharp, Unseasonable Decline the Year Before On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. Aside from some short-term reporting gimmicks, Payroll Employment probably still is the highest-quality economic statistic published by the U.S. Government, at present, given current data and the reporting-compromised conditions of a still-evolving Pandemic/ post-Pandemic environment. -- Despite recent GDP Benchmark Revisions and current gimmicked reporting, key Economic Series show not only that the Pandemic-driven Economic Collapse was worse than headlined, but also that the still-unfolding Recovery has been much weaker than indicated. Trailblazer builds: Strengthen your main character up. In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). All previous Commentaries are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. 2023 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams. March 2023 Housing Starts dropped year-to-year by a meaningful 17.2% (-17.2%) +/- 9.1%, with a 90% confidence interval, versus a revised 19.4% (-19.4%) [previously 18.4% (-18.4%)] in February. ShadowStats' John Williams: Why inflation now is really 13.5% - KITCO At the same time, the Pandemic-distorted and disrupted year-to-year gain for February 2023 Basic M1 eased to 4.8% from and unrevised 6.2% in February 2023. Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. Indeed, setting up accelerating inflation or hyperinflation, current extreme Monetary and Fiscal stimuli likely will be expanded, not reduced. 1461. March 2023 Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization showed meaningful downside benchmark revisions to previously reported activity, but continued in a third month of upturn in context of Federal Reserve regular overestimation of headline Industrial Production.